General vibe of the new OS remains positive, say analysts
Microsoft has done a good job rolling out Windows 10 in the first two weeks,
analysts said today, and the general vibe for Windows 8's replacement has been
positive, even though glitches have dampened some enthusiasm.
"If I had to give Microsoft a letter grade, it would be a B or a B+," said Steve
Kleynhans of Gartner. "It's not an A because it hasn't gone perfectly. They've
stubbed their toe over privacy issues, for example."
Microsoft began serving up the free Windows 10 upgrade late on July 28, giving
participants in the firm's Insider preview program first shot at the production
code. It then slowly began triggering upgrade notices on Windows 7 and 8.1
machines whose owners had earlier "reserved" copies through an on-device app
planted on their devices this spring.
The Redmond, Wash. company has said little of the rollout's performance other
than to tout that 14 million systems were running Windows 10 within 24 hours of
its debut.
Estimates based on user share data from U.S. analytics company Net Applications,
however, suggests that by Aug. 8, some 45 million PCs were powered by Windows
10.
Analysts largely applauded the launch. "As far as the roll-out, it's not any
worse than any other Windows," said Kleynhans. "But it's all happening at this
compressed timetable.
"And social media now amplifies any problems," he continued, much more so than
three years ago when Windows 8 released, much less in 2009, when Microsoft last
had a hit on its hands.
Others were more bullish on Microsoft's performance. "Windows 10's go-to-market
was really quite good," said Wes Miller of Directions on Microsoft, a research
firm that specializes in tracking the company's moves.
Miller was especially impressed with Microsoft's ability to make customers covet
the upgrade. "Something Microsoft has not always done a great job of is creating
a sense of exclusivity," said Miller. "But they're withholding [the upgrade]
just enough that there's a sense of excitement. People are saying, 'I want it,
I'm not getting the upgrade yet.' Arguably, that exactly what Microsoft wants."
Windows 10's rollout has departed from those of past editions in significant
ways.
Historically, Microsoft released a new Windows to its OEM (original equipment
manufacturer) partners first, who were given months to prepare new devices
pre-loaded with the operating system. Only when the computer makers were ready
did Microsoft deliver paid upgrades to customers who wanted to refresh their
current hardware. Relatively few users paid for the upgrades; most preferred to
purchase a new PC with the new OS already installed.
This cycle, Microsoft gave away the Windows 10 upgrade to hundreds of millions
of customers -- those running a Home or Pro/Professional edition of Windows 7 or
Windows 8.1 -- to jumpstart the new OS's adoption. With some exceptions, the
upgrade hit before OEMs had prepared new devices or seeded them to retail.
Because of the large number of customers eligible for the free upgrade,
Microsoft announced it would distribute the code in several waves that would
take weeks (according to Microsoft) or months (the consensus of analysts) to
complete. While some had predicted that the upgrade's massive audience would
stress the delivery system Microsoft had built, or even affect the Internet at
large, neither happened.
The "Get Windows 10" app -- which was silently placed on PCs beginning in March
-- not only served as a way to queue customers for the upgrade, but also ran
compatibility checks to ensure the hardware and software would support the new
operating system, another slick move by Microsoft.
"Microsoft rolled out Windows 10 to the audience that would be most receptive,"
said Patrick Moorhead, principal analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy, referring
to the Insiders-get-it-first tactic. "Then they rolled it out to those who
weren't Insiders, but who had expressed a desire to get the upgrade. And only
those [whose devices] passed all of its tests got it. That was a smart thing to
do."
The latter was designed to limit upgrade snafus, something Microsoft has
chiefly, although not entirely, accomplished. "While the rollout was pretty
clean, there have been glitchy issues here and there," said Kleynhans, who cited
post-Windows-10-upgrade updates that crippled some consumers' machines.
Moorhead echoed that, highlighting the out-the-gate problem many had keeping
Nvidia's graphic drivers up-to-date as Microsoft's and Nvidia's update services
tussled over which got to install a driver. "Problems have been more anecdotal
than system-wide," Moorhead said. "And they seem to get remedied very quickly."
The bungles haven't been widespread enough to taint the generally favorable
impression of Windows 10 generated by social media, news reports and Microsoft's
PR machine, the analysts argued.
"Overall, I'd say Windows 10 has received a much more positive reception than
other [editions of] Windows," said Moorhead, who said the reaction was
justified, since the developing consensus is that Windows 10 is a big
improvement over its flop-of-a-predecessor, Windows 8.
"The vibe is positive, but it's much more about consumers now than businesses,"
said Directions' Miller. Enterprises, he said, will take a wait-and-see approach
-- as they always do -- before jumping onto Windows 10, as they must if they're
to stick with Microsoft, a given since there isn't a viable alternative.
A credible reaction from corporate customers, Miller continued, won't be visible
until Microsoft finishes unveiling its update tracks, called "branches,"
particularly the "Long-term servicing branch" (LTSB). That branch will mimic the
traditional servicing model where new features and functionality will be blocked
from reaching systems that businesses don't want to see constantly changing.
"People are liking what they are getting out of the other end" of the upgrade,
added Kleynhans. "From what I've heard, they're happy, surprisingly happy, and
generally pretty positive about the OS. But I'd expect the new shine to wear off
after the first couple of weeks."
